由于市場(chǎng)擔(dān)心西方國(guó)家針對(duì)俄羅斯的制裁將進(jìn)一步“加碼”,俄羅斯盧布對(duì)美元的比價(jià)降至新低。
The rouble fell to 37.03 per dollar on Friday,its worst valuation since the currency was restructured in 1998. The tumble comes weeks after Russia‘s central bank pledged to intervene less in the currency’s valuation.
盧布對(duì)美元的比價(jià)8月29日跌至37.03盧布兌換1美元,為1998年發(fā)行新貨幣以來最低點(diǎn)位。本次大跌是在俄羅斯央行表態(tài)不會(huì)太多干預(yù)外匯幣值波動(dòng)數(shù)周之后發(fā)生的。(BBC)
自烏克蘭危機(jī)以來,盧布在外匯市場(chǎng)上表現(xiàn)不佳,特別是西方國(guó)家和俄羅斯展開制裁與反制裁之戰(zhàn),加重了盧布的跌勢(shì)。統(tǒng)計(jì)顯示,過去一個(gè)月,盧布兌美元貶值4%。烏克蘭本幣格里夫納也因這場(chǎng)危機(jī)跌勢(shì)難止,一度跌到13.65格里夫納兌換1美元。
It also follows peace talks in Minsk between Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Minsk. The market may have found the talks “disappointing”and renewed its concern over sanctions,said Manik Narain,emerging market strategist at UBS.
本次盧布重挫也緊隨烏克蘭總統(tǒng)波羅申科和俄羅斯總統(tǒng)普京在明斯克舉行的和平會(huì)談。瑞銀集團(tuán)新興市場(chǎng)策略師納瑞因稱,市場(chǎng)可能發(fā)現(xiàn)雙方的會(huì)談“令人失望”,并將關(guān)注點(diǎn)重新放在制裁之上。(BBC)
兩國(guó)總統(tǒng)8月26日在白俄羅斯首都明斯克面對(duì)面舉行約2小時(shí)閉門會(huì)談。這是6月以來兩國(guó)總統(tǒng)的首次會(huì)晤。有媒體稱,會(huì)談并沒有就結(jié)束烏克蘭東部軍事沖突問題取得突破性進(jìn)展。波羅申科會(huì)談后則表示,會(huì)談“非常復(fù)雜、艱難”。
European Union leaders agreed late Saturday to draw up options within a week for possible new sanctions against Russia,with action to follow quickly unless Moscow takes clear steps to scale back its intervention in Ukraine.
歐盟領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人8月30日晚些時(shí)候達(dá)成一致意見,將在未來一周內(nèi)確定對(duì)俄羅斯制裁可能使用的新措施,除非俄羅斯在介入烏克蘭的問題上采用明確的退出策略。(華爾街日?qǐng)?bào))
歐盟委員會(huì)主席巴羅佐8月30日表示,制裁并非目標(biāo),只是為了讓俄羅斯領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人意識(shí)到其行為“不可接受”。巴羅佐強(qiáng)調(diào),烏克蘭危機(jī)不能通過軍事手段解決,歐盟敦促俄羅斯與歐盟、烏克蘭開展建設(shè)性合作。
A fresh move to tighten sanctions against Russia will fuel tensions between Brussels and Moscow and could lead to retaliation from Russia,which denies it has sent troops into Ukraine. Earlier this month,Russia banned imports on a wide range of food and agriculture products from the EU in response to Western sanctions.
針對(duì)俄羅斯的新制裁,將令歐盟和俄羅斯的關(guān)系更趨緊張,可能招來俄方的反制措施,后者一直否認(rèn)軍事介入烏克蘭事務(wù)。8月早些時(shí)候,作為西方多輪制裁的回應(yīng),俄羅斯宣布禁止進(jìn)口一系列原產(chǎn)歐盟的食物和農(nóng)產(chǎn)品。(華爾街日?qǐng)?bào))
據(jù)悉,歐盟對(duì)俄實(shí)體部門的制裁將令俄經(jīng)濟(jì)今年損失230億歐元、明年損失750億歐元,分別占其國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的1.5%和4.8%。不過,歐盟委員會(huì)預(yù)計(jì),由于歐盟對(duì)俄羅斯實(shí)施制裁,歐盟今明兩年將分別減少400億歐元和500億歐元收入,分別占GDP的0.3%和0.4%。
The outlook for the rouble was unchanged compared with last month‘s poll,with the Russian currency seen strengthening slightly to around 36.5 against the dollar and 47.5 against the euro by year-end.
與7月份的調(diào)查相比,對(duì)盧布幣值的展望沒有發(fā)生變化。到今年年底,略微走強(qiáng)的盧布對(duì)美元的比價(jià)將維持在36.5盧布兌1美元,對(duì)歐元的比價(jià)在47.5盧布兌1歐元左右。(路透社)
俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)走向同樣對(duì)盧布產(chǎn)生重要影響,俄羅斯政府預(yù)計(jì)下半年俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將達(dá)0.5%,而一些西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的看法則更加悲觀,預(yù)計(jì)第三季度僅增長(zhǎng)0.1%,四季度會(huì)萎縮0.1%。